The paper names the scenario everyone in the knowledge economy should be thinking about: a “Great Recession for white-collar workers,” noting that during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, the U.S. unemployment rate doubled from 5% to 10%. The researchers note that a comparable doubling in the top quartile of AI-exposed occupations—from 3% to 6%—would be clearly detectable in their framework. It hasn’t happened yet, but it absolutely could.
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