几天前，IFBH发布了上市以来的第一份财报：净利润缩水三成。两边消息叠加，市场哗然，股价应声下跌。截至今日晚间发稿，IFBH最新股价为10.49港元，已连续几日大幅下跌。公司市值27.87亿港元，与上市初期最高126.8亿港元相比，8个月时间蒸发近百亿港元。
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Subsequent work has demonstrated that positive testing is not inherently irrational [austerweil2011seeking, perfors2009confirmation, oeberst_toward_2023]; for instance, when target phenomena are relatively rare, positive testing approximates optimal information gathering [klayman_confirmation_1987]. Bias emerges not from the strategy itself, but from the interaction between the search strategy and the environment [klayman_varieties_1995]. When a learner’s hypothesis is a subset of, or embedded within, the truth, positive testing yields “ambiguous verifications” that the learner mistakes for strong evidence for their hypothesis [klayman_confirmation_1987]. This creates a feedback loop where the search strategy retrieves only confirming data, and the learner fails to account for the fact that they are sampling from a biased subset of reality.